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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

However this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent underperformers improving together. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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