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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."