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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.